#Hitler had what one might call a diffident, occasionally felonious disregard for financial matters. He owed 400k reichsmarks in back taxes. His understanding of #economics was primitive. “You have #inflation only if you want it,” he once said. “Inflation is a lack of discipline. I will see to it that prices remain stable. I have my S.A. for that.”(The S.A., or Brownshirts, were the original paramilitary org for w/the Nazi Party.)Hitler held Jews responsible for most of Germany’s financial woes.

"The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 700 points or 1.73%, the S&P 500 fell 2.24%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 3.07%.

Danielle Kaye of the New York Times reports on a recent Bank of America survey that shows global investors have dumped a record amount of U.S. stocks in the past two months."

#Trump #tariffs #inflation #recession #economy #StockMarket #DowJones
/3

"Stocks fell again today after Trump’s administration said it would put limits on chip sales to China and after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell told the Economic Club of Chicago that Trump’s tariffs will have 'significantly larger than anticipated…economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth.'"

#Trump #tariffs #inflation #recession #economy #StockMarket #DowJones
/2

https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/april-16-2025

#Trump's post came a day after #JeromePowell warned that the #tariffs from the Trump admin are likely to cause both higher prices & slower economic growth.

"Tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in #inflation," Powell told the Economic Club of Chicago, noting that Trump's import #taxes were higher than most forecasters had expected. "The inflationary effects could also be more persistent."

#Trump was evidently frustrated that the European Central Bank was preparing to lower interest rates for the 7th time, while the #FederalReserve is in a holding pattern. Of course, European leaders have not imposed triple-digit #tariffs which threaten to rekindle #inflation.

The 3 major #US #stock indexes extended declines in afternoon trading on Wednesday while #JeromePowell spoke.

"Powell’s saying what the market has been fearing all along. And it’s coming from the Fed chief, confirming all these things," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York.

#US #economy #Trump #policy #Fed #US #law #regulation #currency #inflation #tariffs #recession

#JeromePowell said #Fed independence is a matter of #law! [tyvm]

His remarks on Fed independence drew a round of audience applause in Chicago.

He said:

We are protected in the law

Fed independence has broad support across political parties

I don't think the case before #SCOTUS on independent agencies will apply to the Fed

Fed is not going to be influenced by political pressure

#US #economy #Trump #policy #US #law #regulation #currency #inflation #tariffs #recession

#AI likely to bring dramatic change, #JeromePowell says

Powell also said:
AI is more than a better version of Google, and it's like a better version of a person [at least he doesn’t confuse it with a steak sauce]

AI is one of the two or three things likely to bring dramatic change to the economy

It's hard to know how it will shakeout

#US #economy #Trump #policy #Fed #US #law #regulation #currency #inflation #tariffs #recession

#JeromePowell on #cryptocurrency

#Crypto is becoming more mainstream, & a #legal framework for #stablecoins is a good idea

Stablecoins could have wide appeal, & *should* have #ConsumerProtections!

There will be some loosening of rules to allow innovation, but it needs to be done in ways that does not make banks less safe & sound

#US #economy #Trump #policy #Fed #US #law #regulation #currency #inflation #tariffs #recession

#JeromePowell on #US #debt

Federal debt is on an unsustainable path, though not at an unsustainable level.

Running large deficits w/full employment is a situation the country has to address

Domestic discretionary spending is small & declining as a share of federal spending; that is not the problem

So much of the dialogue from politicians is about discretionary spending, which is not the issue.

#US #economy #Trump #policy #Fed #US #inflation #tariffs #recession

#JeromePowell said #markets are processing the #policy changes, but they are functioning.

"What I think is going on in markets is markets are processing what's going on, markets are struggling with a lot of #uncertainty & that means #volatility.”

He also said that volatility is likely to continue given the high uncertainty.

#US #economy #Trump #Fed #US #inflation #tariffs

#JeromePowell says #Fed could have to make a difficult decision.

The Fed's 2 goals are not yet in tension, but the potential is leading to simultaneous higher #unemployment & higher #inflation.

The tension between employment & inflation goals would be a difficult position for the Fed to lower rates.

#US #economy #Trump #policy #JeromePowell #Fed #US #inflation #tariffs

#JeromePowell said that #trade policies pursued by the Trump admin will create challenges for the central bank to meet its #job & #inflation mandates this year.

The new trade policies represent significant change.

"The effects of that are likely to move us away from our goals, so #unemployment is likely to go up as the #economy slows in all likelihood, & inflation is likely to go up as #tariffs find their way" into the economy.

He added this will likely play out over the course of the year.

#JeromePowell also said #Immigration has been a big reason growth has been so strong over the last couple of years.

The growth in the supply of #workers has stagnated, but so has demand for workers, as companies make cutbacks which is why unemployment is relatively stable.

Government layoffs are not yet measured enough to know effect on the #economy

#Car company #SupplyChains are likely to be disrupted for years.

#Fed #US #inflation #Trump #tariffs